Western officials have stated that Russia is losing approximately 6,000 more troops in Ukraine each month than it is able to recruit. Despite an estimated recruitment rate of 1,000 new personnel daily, this has not been enough to replace those killed or injured over the past two months.
One western official indicated that the gap between casualties and recruitment is currently around 6,000 per month. Officials suggest that Russia's response has been to escalate attacks on civilian infrastructure and civilians in Ukraine, firing over 360 missiles since early July.
Western officials believe that further mobilisation would pose significant political and economic risks for Russia. They note that the previous mobilisation in autumn 2022 led to about a million Russians, many highly skilled, leaving the country, with less than half returning. It is also unclear if the Russian military could accommodate a large influx of new recruits due to a lack of equipment and officers.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham visited Kyiv this week, telling Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the UK would provide Ukraine with previously classified information on British-manufactured components for long-range cruise missiles. Burnham also urged the international community to increase protection for Ukraine against Russian attacks, particularly with more US-made Patriot interceptor missiles, a point he is expected to raise at next month’s UN general assembly.
Russia has issued repeated threats of retaliation, including discussions of attacks on UK military targets both within and outside Ukraine. However, western officials assess that while the threat remains real, the situation has not changed, and President Putin aims to avoid direct confrontation with Nato.
Officials believe Russia still has the capability to target the UK through cyberattacks or physical attacks on civilian targets by proxies. They stated that any such action would likely be limited to avoid a more direct conflict with Nato.