Western officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to avoid a direct military confrontation with Nato, despite increasingly hostile rhetoric directed at the UK and other allies due to their support for Ukraine. These officials, who remained anonymous, stated that recent warnings from Moscow, such as targeting UK forces or weapons factories, are not new and align with Russia's military doctrine to pressure the West.
The officials suggested that this hostile rhetoric also reflects growing domestic pressure on Putin, stemming from slow and costly gains in Ukraine and the impact of Ukrainian long-range strikes within Russia. However, they noted that while there is increasing political pressure on the Russian leader, it does not pose a critical challenge to his power.
Russia is expected to continue its "hybrid activity" against Nato members, short of direct military action. This could involve methods such as cyber-attacks, sabotage, and assassination attempts, aimed at weakening Western resolve and support for Ukraine. One official highlighted the risk of this strategy leading to a miscalculation that could spark a military confrontation.
Russia is suspected of involvement in recent drone incidents in several Nato countries, including a drone loaded with explosives reaching Leipzig airport in Germany earlier this month. Russia has denied any role in these incidents. The UK government has affirmed that recent Russian threats will not deter its support for Ukraine.