A substantial heatwave is set to engulf much of Europe this week, with a mass of hot air originating from the Sahara desert pushing temperatures significantly above seasonal averages. The Iberian Peninsula has already experienced the brunt of this warm air, which has since spread into southern and western France, where temperatures are widely reaching the low to mid-30s Celsius.
By mid-week, this hot air mass is projected to extend north-eastwards across the continent. Forecasts for Friday indicate that maximum temperatures could climb into the mid-30s Celsius in several countries, including Germany, Italy, and Czechia. These readings represent a considerable departure from the norm, with some locations expecting temperatures to be 9-13 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 climate average.
The United Kingdom is not expected to completely escape the influence of this European heat. Weather models suggest that occasional plumes of warm air could track northwards from the continent on Thursday and Friday. This influx of warmer air is anticipated to push temperatures into the mid-to-high 20s Celsius across southern and eastern England. However, other regions such as Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are less likely to experience these elevated temperatures, though conditions may remain mild.
Following up to five consecutive days of mid-30s temperatures in some European areas – meeting the definition of a heatwave – the intensity of the heat is expected to subside for most by early next week. While no specific Met Office warnings have been issued for the UK at this stage, residents in affected areas are advised to stay hydrated and take precautions against the sun.
Beyond Europe, other parts of the world are also experiencing above-average temperatures. Australia, for instance, is seeing a mild start to its winter. A slow-moving low-pressure system south of South Australia is drawing warm northerly air across the eastern half of the country, accompanied by gusty conditions. Temperatures in Melbourne are forecast to reach the high-teens Celsius, approximately 3-4 degrees above average, with overnight temperatures also staying unusually warm. This pattern has been linked by the national Bureau of Meteorology to developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which typically lead to warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across much of Australia.