The Scottish National Party (SNP) has secured its position as the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, an outcome that was widely anticipated even before polls opened on Thursday. This result is set to significantly amplify the party's calls for a second Scottish independence referendum, placing renewed pressure on the UK Government.
While the final seat count and precise majority will determine the exact balance of power, the SNP's pre-eminence was never in doubt. The party has consistently led opinion polls throughout the campaign, benefiting from its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and its clear constitutional stance. This election was framed by many as a de facto referendum on independence, with the SNP campaigning on a platform to hold another vote once the immediate health crisis has passed.
The Scottish Conservative Party, led by Douglas Ross, maintained its position as the main opposition, campaigning on a platform of focusing on recovery from the pandemic and rejecting another independence referendum. Other parties, including Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats, also contested the election, aiming to increase their representation and influence the direction of Scottish policy.
The implications of the SNP's strong performance are far-reaching. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has repeatedly stated that a majority for pro-independence parties would constitute a mandate for a new referendum. However, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has consistently rejected such calls, arguing that the focus should remain on national recovery and that the 2014 independence referendum, which saw 55% vote to remain in the UK, was a 'once-in-a-generation' event.
The legal framework for holding a referendum requires a Section 30 order from the UK Government. Without this, any attempt by the Scottish Parliament to hold a legally binding vote would likely face significant challenges. The coming months are therefore expected to see a renewed constitutional debate between Edinburgh and Westminster, with the SNP seeking to leverage its electoral success.