At David Cameron's 60th birthday celebration in Cornwall, conversations among political figures briefly turned to the question of whether Andy Burnham will call a snap election. While the event was primarily focused on family and friends, the topic of Westminster's current political speculation arose.
Attendees were divided on the timing, but most suggested spring 2027 as the most likely period for an election. The year 2028 was also considered a strong possibility, with 2029 deemed the least likely. There was a general agreement that for Burnham, the potential risks of a snap election might still outweigh the benefits, despite any advice he may receive.
Concerns were raised about the potential lack of a clear reason for the public to go to the polls, drawing parallels to Theresa May's past election. Polling data reportedly indicates that Burnham is still short of a majority and could lose 99 seats. While a 'Lean Left' strategy is noted to be working and could soon reach 30 per cent, it was suggested that public opinion can change rapidly.