Schools and councils across England are expecting the proportion of children with special needs plans to double to one in 10. This comes as families are reportedly rushing to secure support before ministers introduce changes to the system.
Headteachers have described an “unreal” surge in applications for Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs), which mandate support for needs or disabilities such as speech and learning difficulties, autism, or ADHD. In 2025, one in 20 school-age children had EHCPs.
The number of pupils with EHCPs has increased by over 11% in each of the last two years. Local authorities project similar double-digit annual increases over the next three years, which could mean nearly 10% of all school-age children having an EHCP by 2029.
School leaders stated that their special educational needs (Send) coordinators worked through the summer to manage the influx of assessment requests. Some secondary schools are reporting that many more Year 7 pupils are arriving with EHCPs or applications.
Bill Revans, spokesperson for the County Councils Network on Send, noted a particularly sharp surge in assessment requests since the government announced its planned reforms in February. He added that previous predictions for EHCP numbers by 2028-29 are now likely to be exceeded, leading to financial pressures on local authorities.
Schools minister Georgia Gould said the government is considering responses to its white paper, which aims for earlier diagnosis and intervention and to moderate the need for EHCPs. Parts of the planned changes, including the “experts in hand” scheme, are expected to begin operating this year.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, suggested that the government’s plans to restrict future EHCPs to children with the most complex needs may have prompted more families and schools to apply before these changes take effect.