Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, which would make it the latest first hurricane to develop in over a century. The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported on Tuesday afternoon that the system was situated approximately 630 miles south-west of the mouth of the Mississippi River, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
The NHC anticipates the depression will strengthen into a tropical storm by Wednesday and potentially a hurricane by Thursday as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, it would be the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, marking the latest such development since 8 October 1905, according to the Associated Press.
AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva indicated that the storm is expected to avoid strong wind shear, which should aid its strengthening. The system is predicted to turn north-east and approach the central Gulf coast late this week, with a possible US landfall early Saturday. The most likely area for landfall stretches from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
The NHC expects the system to bring 3-6 inches of rain across parts of the central US from Friday through the weekend, with some areas potentially receiving up to 10 inches. Flash and urban flooding, alongside isolated river flooding, are also possible. Strong winds, dangerous surf, and rip currents are anticipated, with gusts of 60-80 mph possible near the center if the system reaches hurricane strength.
The current strong El Niño climate pattern is noted as a factor in the quieter Atlantic hurricane season. While El Niño warms Pacific sea surface temperatures and has led to increased storm activity there, it also increases wind shear over the Atlantic, which can reduce the likelihood of tropical storms developing into hurricanes.