Tropical Storm Isaias has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is likely to strengthen into the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026. Forecasts suggest it could reach hurricane strength late on Wednesday or early Thursday, potentially intensifying to a category two storm by Friday morning.
The storm has the potential to bring damaging winds, torrential rain, and a storm surge to parts of the US Gulf Coast. Landfall is expected on Friday or Saturday, probably in Mississippi, Alabama, or Florida. Parts of Mexico, including the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula, could also experience gusty winds and heavy rain as the storm moves northwards and eastwards.
The US National Hurricane Center estimates that Isaias will strengthen rapidly. The US National Weather Service expects to issue Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches later on Wednesday. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency across 25 north Florida counties due to concerns about potential impacts.
Isaias marks the end of a record-breakingly quiet Atlantic hurricane season, with development suppressed by a strong El Niño in the Pacific. Despite the El Niño, Isaias has formed over the Gulf of Mexico where sea temperatures are 30-31C, around 2C higher than normal, providing fuel for the storm.