Former US President Donald Trump has declared that a "great settlement" to conclude the conflict with Iran is on the horizon, following his earlier cancellation of planned strikes against the nation. Speaking from the Oval Office, Mr Trump asserted that an agreement ensuring Iran would never possess a nuclear weapon was the core purpose of the extensive efforts made. He indicated that a signing ceremony might take place in Europe "pretty quickly" once the necessary documents are finalised, which he described as being in "pretty final shape".
However, these claims have been swiftly contradicted by Tehran. Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's foreign ministry, told state television that reports of an agreement were "speculative" and that "nothing has been finalised". Mr Baghaei acknowledged that the majority of a memorandum's text had been settled, but accused the US of making "excessive demands" and introducing "new requests" that deviate from Iran's established "red lines".
The announcement from Mr Trump, which follows previous similar claims of an impending deal, had an immediate impact on global markets. The price of Brent crude oil, a key benchmark for UK fuel prices, fell by 4.4% on the day to approximately $89 a barrel (around £66). This volatility underscores the sensitivity of international markets to developments in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, a major oil producer.
A significant aspect of Mr Trump's statement was the assertion that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen "as soon as we have it signed". This crucial waterway, a chokepoint for a substantial portion of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has been effectively closed by Iran following tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran. Its potential reopening would have considerable implications for global energy security and shipping costs, directly impacting UK businesses and consumers.
The current situation follows a period of heightened tensions, including wide-ranging strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, and retaliatory attacks by Iran on Israel and US-allied states in the Gulf. Despite a ceasefire agreed in April, intermittent exchanges of fire, including two rounds of strikes this week, have continued. The UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) currently advises against all travel to Iran due to the volatile security situation, a stance that would remain under review should a genuine de-escalation occur.
Mr Trump also stated he had consulted with regional leaders, including Gulf allies and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, claiming "The whole Middle East is very happy." While Mr Netanyahu's office confirmed a conversation, it clarified that Israel "is not a party to the memorandum of understanding" but expressed appreciation for Mr Trump's commitment to a final agreement that includes the removal of enriched material, dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and cessation of Iran's support for proxies in the region.
Source: Reuters, Iranian State TV