The long-awaited US-Iran peace deal has sparked a mixture of relief and trepidation among Western leaders gathering for the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France. US President Donald Trump has claimed that 'all's signed', declaring the crucial Strait of Hormuz will be fully accessible by Friday. However, analysts warn that several key conditions must still be met before this can be considered a stable agreement.
At the summit, Trump downplayed the need for a joint UK-France naval mission to secure the strait, stating 'I don’t think we will need much help' when speaking with French President Emmanuel Macron. Despite his confidence in a positive shift for the Middle East, evidenced by falling oil prices and rising stock markets, significant 'loose ends' remain. These include Iran's assertion of its right to charge fees for passage through the waterway and ongoing Israeli breaches of the ceasefire in Lebanon.
The memorandum of understanding, set for a formal signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday, involves the US lifting its naval blockade on Iran in exchange for Iranian agreement to refrain from developing nuclear weapons. This core tenet is backed by 'strong policing powers', according to Trump. White House officials expect the full details of the agreement to be released within 24-48 hours.
G7 leaders are grappling with the immediate implications and potential fragility of the deal, which includes provisions for lifting sanctions and unfreezing billions of dollars in assets. However, US officials have stressed that these measures will only be implemented if Iran fulfils its commitments. As of now, no frozen assets have been released by the US or any other nation.
The region's stability remains a pressing concern, particularly following an Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon resulting in one fatality – the second since the 60-day ceasefire was agreed. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned Israel that the ceasefire must extend to Lebanon, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed 'there can be no lasting peace whilst Lebanon remains in flames'. In Israel, there is growing anger directed at both Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with analysts pointing out that none of Netanyahu's initial war objectives have been achieved.
US Vice-President JD Vance will lead technical discussions to address complex issues, including the future of Iran's nuclear programme. The deal also includes reciprocal 'small gestures' from Iran in exchange for US sanctions relief and asset unfreezing – although no Gulf country is reported to be cutting separate deals on this matter.