A new analysis by the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) indicates that the annual cost for a hypothetical UK firm with 50 employees and £5m turnover is set to increase by 71.5% over a decade. The BCC's Cost Stack Calculator models this rise from approximately £1.16m in 2016/17 to £1.98m by 2026/27.
This increase means that the annual cost burden will grow from 31.7% to 39.7% of the firm's inflation-adjusted turnover. The analysis highlights that labour-intensive firms are particularly affected, with wages accounting for £590,755 of the rise.
Employer National Insurance for this hypothetical firm is up 141%, and auto-enrolment pension contributions have increased by 442%. These figures do not include Brexit trade costs, global input-price shocks, or profit taxes.
The BCC's Quarterly Economic Survey for Q2 2026, based on responses from over 4,500 firms, shows that only 17% increased their investment, the lowest since the pandemic. The share of firms expecting turnover to improve in the next year has fallen to 44%, down from 49%.