Colonel Joby Rimmer, the UK Senior Military Advisor, stated on 30 September 2026 that Russia's claims of inevitable military success in Ukraine do not withstand examination. Speaking to the OSCE, Colonel Rimmer addressed Russia's assertions of steady advances on all fronts and the ineffectiveness of Western military assistance.
Russia claimed to have taken more than 5,300 square kilometres and over 220 settlements during 2026, including over 670 square kilometres and 27 settlements in September. However, independent open-source analysis found no evidence to support these figures. Assessments suggest Russia secured only a fraction of the claimed territory, with Ukrainian counterattacks liberating significant areas, including 85 square kilometres during Operation VIVALDI.
Colonel Rimmer also challenged Russia's portrayal of Western military assistance as a failure, noting that while some Western equipment may have been damaged or destroyed, such losses are inherent in high-intensity warfare. He highlighted that open-source project ORYX had visually confirmed Russian losses of 4,390 main battle tanks, 6,429 infantry fighting vehicles, 730 armoured personnel carriers, and over 2,000 other armoured vehicle variants by May 2026.
The UK reiterated its commitment to continue providing Ukraine with the necessary support and equipment for defence against Russia's invasion, despite Russian threats to companies engaged in defence-industrial cooperation. The UK also clarified that it does not seek escalation with Russia.