As households across the UK continue to feel the pinch of rising living costs, a worrying trend has emerged: food price inflation is back on the up. Analysis from Which? reveals that overall grocery inflation has nudged upwards for the first time since May last year, from 2.4% in May 2026 to 2.6% in June 2026.
The steepest increases were seen in the fish category, which saw a staggering 11% inflation rate in June 2026 compared to the previous year. This surge is attributed to a combination of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, including the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine, which has impacted the supply of whitefish and led to a 35% tariff on Russian imports.
A few examples illustrate just how quickly prices can jump: Tesco's Breaded Chunky Haddock Fillets (350g) and its Breaded Chunky Cod fillets both leapt from an average price of £3.49 to £5.40, a whopping 54% increase. It's not just fish that's being hit hard, either – fizzy drinks rose by 3.3%, energy drinks increased by 5.5%, and sweet treats like biscuits and chocolate saw price hikes of 3% and 3.8% respectively.
While these increases may seem manageable at first glance, the cumulative effect on household budgets can be significant. For instance, Asda's Shloer Zero White Grape Sparkling Zero Calorie Fruit Drink (750ml) has seen a staggering 95% price rise from £1.42 to £2.77, while Paterson's Shortbread & Biscuit Selection Sharing Assortment (400g) at Sainsbury's increased by 87.5% from £2 to £3.75.
But not all food categories are feeling the pinch: some dairy products, which saw sharp inflation during the peak of the cost of living crisis in late 2022 and early 2023, are now showing signs of easing. Butters and spreads, for example, have seen their average prices fall by 0.9% in June 2026 compared to the previous year.
As the Bank of England keeps a close eye on economic indicators, this renewed inflationary pressure could influence future monetary decisions – potentially impacting mortgage rates and the cost of borrowing for UK businesses and consumers. Businesses reliant on imported goods or energy-intensive production may face increased operational costs, which could be passed on to consumers.
Investors will be watching how these cost pressures affect the profitability of major supermarket chains and food producers, with potential implications for FTSE 100 performance in the retail sector.