The Met Office has provided an early indication that the UK could be set for a period of significantly warmer weather, potentially leading to a heatwave, towards the end of June. While long-range forecasts inherently carry a degree of uncertainty, meteorologists are pointing to a shift in weather patterns that could bring more settled and hotter conditions across the country.
Current projections suggest that the period from Monday, 17th June, to Wednesday, 26th June, will see a gradual transition. Initially, many areas can expect a continuation of the mixed weather seen recently, with some showers, particularly in the north and west, interspersed with drier spells. However, as the period progresses, there is an increasing likelihood of higher pressure dominating, especially across southern and eastern parts of England.
This shift in atmospheric pressure would lead to more prolonged periods of sunshine and a notable increase in temperatures. While it is too early to specify exact figures, the Met Office's outlook hints at temperatures potentially exceeding average for the time of year, particularly in areas like London and the South East, where daytime highs could climb into the mid-20s Celsius or higher if a heatwave materialises. Northern England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are also expected to see temperatures rise, though perhaps not as dramatically as the south.
For a heatwave to be officially declared, specific temperature thresholds must be met for at least three consecutive days. These thresholds vary by county, ranging from 25C in parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland, to 27C in central England, and 28C in London and the South East. While the current outlook doesn't guarantee these conditions, the trend towards warmer and more settled weather makes a heatwave a distinct possibility.
The long-range forecast for the subsequent period, from Thursday, 27th June, to Thursday, 11th July, further supports this trend. The Met Office indicates that 'above average temperatures are more likely than below average,' suggesting that any heatwave conditions could potentially extend into early July. This outlook contrasts with the relatively cooler and unsettled start to June that many parts of the UK have experienced.