Following a significantly wet start to meteorological summer, many parts of the UK are set to experience a welcome change this weekend with the return of drier and warmer conditions. However, earlier predictions of a widespread heatwave have been tempered by a subtle alteration in atmospheric pressure systems.
Initially, high pressure was expected to build across the entire country, potentially ushering in a period of sustained high temperatures. Instead, this high pressure is now anticipated to settle predominantly to the west of the UK, resulting in cooler north-westerly winds. While this shift means any truly hot air will remain further south, away from British shores, temperatures will still climb to or slightly above the average for June in many regions.
Southern England, Wales, and the Midlands are expected to see the most pleasant conditions, with temperatures potentially reaching between 16C and 23C. After any early low cloud clears on Saturday, these areas should enjoy widespread strong June sunshine. In contrast, Northern England, Northern Ireland, and Scotland will experience more cloud, scattered showers, and brisk winds, with gusts potentially exceeding 40mph in some locations. Temperatures here will feel cooler, peaking at 13-17C.
On Sunday, winds are forecast to ease somewhat, although eastern and northern parts of the UK may remain breezy. Dry conditions and sunny spells are largely expected, though a band of cloud could drift southwards, possibly bringing an isolated light shower. Afternoon temperatures across the country will range from approximately 13C in northern Scotland to 22C or 23C in parts of South Wales and Southern England.
For those planning outdoor activities, it's worth noting that pollen levels are predicted to be high or very high across England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, while remaining low to moderate in Scotland. Furthermore, high UV levels are expected in the sunniest areas, necessitating appropriate sun protection. The drier spell will be a notable departure from early June, which has seen some areas, particularly in south-east England, record more rainfall than they would typically expect for the entire month.
Looking ahead, while the immediate heatwave prospects have faded, some weather models suggest that warmth could persist further south into next week, with hints of temperatures in the mid to high-twenties Celsius later in the period. However, more unsettled conditions, including rain, are expected to return, particularly to the north and west of the UK.