The UK is set to experience a welcome return to warmer summer conditions this week, with the Met Office forecasting temperatures that could reach up to 28C in some parts. Following a comparatively cool spell last week, all regions of the UK are expected to feel noticeably milder, though the forecast indicates a continued presence of rain for certain areas, particularly in the north and west.
Temperatures will generally be at or above average for this time of year, with daily fluctuations influenced by changes in wind direction and cloud cover. Nights and early morning commutes are also expected to become warmer. For western Scotland and Northern Ireland, the highest temperatures, around 19-21C, are predicted at the start of the week, driven by gentle south-easterly winds. Elsewhere, as winds shift between south and south-westerly, many areas could see temperatures in the low to mid-20s Celsius on various days.
The most significant burst of heat is anticipated towards the end of the week, specifically on Thursday and Friday. This warmth is expected to originate from mainland Europe, where intense heat is building, with cities like Paris and Berlin potentially reaching 35-36C. This European heat is forecast to extend towards the UK, predominantly affecting central and eastern England. While highs of around 28C are suggested, the precise amount of sunshine and exact wind direction could lead to actual temperatures varying by a couple of degrees either side. A shift to westerly winds over the weekend will likely cause temperatures to dip again, although some models hint at a brief return of warmth the following week.
Despite the warmer outlook, the UK's weather this week will remain a battleground between differing pressure systems. High pressure across mainland Europe will bring intense heat, while a cool, showery area of low pressure will linger close to the north-west of the UK. This meteorological interplay means a mix of potentially hot sunshine interspersed with occasional rain showers. Rainfall totals are expected to vary significantly, with northern and western regions, closer to the low pressure system, likely to experience higher amounts. Conversely, some areas in the south-east may see little to no rain at all, though overall rainfall is expected to be less than in recent weeks.
For hay fever sufferers, the warmer and wetter conditions present a drawback. Pollen levels, which were somewhat suppressed by recent rainy days, are now expected to rise considerably. Warmer temperatures often lead to greater pollen emission, and sunny, dry, and breezy days are particularly challenging for allergy sufferers as we head into the peak of the grass pollen season.
The Met Office advises those in areas expecting higher rainfall to remain aware of local conditions, particularly given that several sites across southern England, Cumbria, the Isle of Man, Dumfries and Galloway, and Northern Ireland have already recorded more rainfall this month than is typically seen for the entirety of June. Parts of East Anglia and southern England, including Norwich, Milton Keynes, and Bournemouth, have also surpassed their total June rainfall for the month so far.
Source: Met Office