The return of El Niño, with its potentially catastrophic consequences, has sent shockwaves through international communities. This powerful natural climate pattern, characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has been informally dubbed a 'super' or 'Godzilla' event due to anticipated temperature anomalies.
El Niño's far-reaching effects are well-documented, with historically severe droughts striking East Africa and South Asia, and heavy rainfall and flooding affecting parts of South America and the southern US. The current El Niño is projected to peak towards the end of the year, with a 63% chance of it being 'very strong', according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has also issued warnings, anticipating an exacerbation of extreme heat and wildfires.
The devastating impact of past El Niño events serves as a stark reminder of the potential consequences. In Ethiopia, for example, Adugna Woyessa, an epidemiologist at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute, witnessed firsthand the catastrophic droughts and famines that struck during the 1970s and 1980s, linked to El Niño. These crises led to widespread hunger, displacement, and even contributed to political instability. The 1982-83 El Niño, for instance, resulted in widespread crop failures that drew global attention, including through the Live Aid concerts.
While scientists caution that societal collapses are multifaceted, extreme El Niño conditions have historically been associated with immense suffering. Famines in the 19th century, linked to severe El Niño years, claimed tens of millions of lives in India, China, and Brazil. There is also evidence suggesting its influence on events like the French Revolution in the 18th century through erratic weather and ruined harvests, and its role in aiding the Spanish conquest of the Inca empire in the 16th century by nourishing desert vegetation.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has urged preparedness for El Niño's return, though it has adopted a more cautious tone regarding its projected strength due to a wide spread in model results. Nevertheless, even if it falls short of the most dire predictions, its arrival amid unprecedented global conditions, including already elevated global temperatures and a surge in extreme weather events, is expected to make its effects more complex and challenging to manage.
The United Nations' World Food Programme (WFP) and its agriculture agency have issued a joint appeal for immediate funding, warning of a potential global hunger crisis. This stark reminder of El Niño's far-reaching consequences has prompted concerns about the ability of vulnerable nations to cope with the impact of this year's event.