The world, including the United Kingdom, must prepare for the imminent return of El Niño and the supercharged weather extremes it brings, the UN has warned. The powerful natural weather pattern, known for raising global temperatures and exacerbating certain rainfall, has an 80% chance of forming before September and a 90% chance of persisting until November, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
El Niño is a complex climate pattern that occurs at irregular intervals of two to seven years, typically lasting nine to 12 months. It involves the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming disrupts global weather patterns, leading to more extreme conditions in various parts of the world, from severe droughts to intense rainfall and heatwaves. The last significant El Niño event occurred in 2016, which contributed to that year being the warmest on record globally.
For the UK, while El Niño does not directly cause extreme weather here in the same way it impacts tropical regions, its global effects can have significant indirect consequences. These can include disruptions to international food supply chains, potentially leading to increased prices for imported goods. The UK relies on a globalised market for many food products, and widespread droughts or floods in key agricultural regions could impact availability and cost for British consumers.
Furthermore, British nationals travelling abroad may face altered conditions. The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) typically monitors global weather patterns and may update travel advice for regions particularly susceptible to El Niño's effects, such as parts of South America, Southeast Asia, and Australia, where increased risk of drought, flooding, or extreme heat could pose challenges for holidaymakers and business travellers.
The UK Government will be closely monitoring the developing situation. While direct intervention in El Niño's global effects is not possible, preparations might involve assessing potential impacts on trade routes, commodity prices, and humanitarian aid requirements for nations severely affected. The Department for Environment, Food and & Rural Affairs (Defra) would likely be involved in evaluating any domestic food supply implications, while the FCDO would assess international travel and consular support needs.
The WMO's warning underscores the need for international cooperation and preparedness strategies to mitigate the widespread impacts of this natural phenomenon. Governments worldwide are urged to review their disaster preparedness plans and early warning systems to protect lives and livelihoods from the anticipated surge in extreme weather events.
Source: World Meteorological Organization