The UK's trade deal with the US has been hailed as a 'landmark' agreement by government ministers, but a recent analysis suggests it could have far-reaching and devastating consequences for England's National Health Service (NHS). According to researchers from the University of York, University of Liverpool, and Christchurch hospital in New Zealand, the deal could divert £44.7 billion away from essential health services by 2036 to cover increased costs for new medicines, potentially resulting in a staggering 229,000 excess deaths.
The study highlights the potential impact on public health, with the projected number of avoidable deaths surpassing the 137,000 recorded during the Covid-19 pandemic between March 2020 and June 2022. Including the indirect effect on adult social care, the estimated excess deaths could rise to 291,000, primarily affecting individuals with heart, respiratory, gastrointestinal diseases, or cancer.
When the agreement was finalised last December, government ministers presented it as a way to 'safeguard medicines access and drive vital investment for UK patients and businesses.' However, under the terms of the deal, the UK will pay 25% more for new medicines over the next decade. The health service in England, which currently allocates £14.4 billion annually to innovative therapies, will also double its spending on such products from 0.3% to 0.6% of GDP over the next ten years.
Ministers and figures from the pharmaceutical industry argued that the deal was advantageous, as it would enable British-made drugs sold to the US to avoid tariffs of up to 100% threatened by former US President Donald Trump. However, MPs and campaign groups have expressed scepticism, with Global Justice Now warning that the deal could lead to the NHS cutting services 'to pacify Donald Trump and big pharma’s demand for higher medicines prices.'
The government has maintained that the deal will incur an additional cost of only £1 billion between 2025-26 and 2028-29, although they have not provided further estimates beyond this point. Science Minister Patrick Vallance confirmed in February that these costs would be borne by the Department of Health and Social Care, which funds the NHS in England, rather than the Treasury.
For any health concerns, readers should consult their GP or call NHS 111 for advice. Official NHS guidelines and NICE recommendations are available for public information.