The widely anticipated mass exodus of pupils from private schools to the state sector following the imposition of 20% VAT on fees has failed to materialise, according to Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson. Despite predictions that up to 90,000 children might transfer to state schools due to the increased cost, data shows no significant surge in applications since January 2025 when the tax was implemented.
The Labour government's decision to add VAT to private school fees was a key pledge, and Ms Phillipson is confident it has already begun to rebalance the system. She said: “The predicted exodus from private schools simply hasn’t happened and today’s data proves it. Critics warned state schools would be swamped with new pupils. They were wrong. They said private schools would close en masse. They haven’t.” The government is now focusing on the 94% of children in state schools, which have historically been overlooked.
Admissions data released by the Department for Education shows that overall applications for primary and secondary school places decreased this year, despite fears of a massive influx from private schools. In fact, nearly 85% of families secured their first preference for secondary school – a higher proportion than in 2024 and 2025.
Analysis of local authority data in central London areas with a high proportion of privately educated children also showed no indication of increased applications. Hammersmith and Fulham and Kensington and Chelsea recorded fewer applications for September places compared to the preceding two years, while Islington saw a slight rise, but the proportion of families receiving their first choice of secondary school dipped from 68% to 66%. The DfE highlighted that in London, 94% of secondary applicants and 98% of primary applicants received an offer from one of their top six preferred schools.
Concerns were raised about areas like Surrey, identified as a potential hotspot for pupils moving from private education. However, Surrey recorded fewer secondary place applications this year, while Kent saw a modest increase of 2%. Experts caution that factors such as a falling birthrate and post-Brexit population shifts could be obscuring the full impact of the VAT increase.
The DfE's 2026 school survey noted a 3.8% drop (22,000 pupils) in independent school numbers compared to 2025, while overall school numbers fell by 1.2%. Despite claims from the Independent Schools Council of 30,000 pupil losses across its members, the DfE’s figure suggests that private schools have not been severely affected.
Experts argue that factors other than the VAT increase may be contributing to these trends and caution against drawing premature conclusions about the long-term impact. However, Ms Phillipson remains confident in the government's decision, saying it is already leading to a more balanced education system.
The DfE highlighted that its data does not suggest a “system under pressure” as concerns about state schools being overwhelmed by new pupils were raised prior to the VAT increase. The government will continue to monitor the situation closely in the coming years.