VMware is set to lose its status as the undisputed leader of the virtualization market after a 20-year reign, according to an analysis. The shift is expected to occur between now and October 2027, and Broadcom, which owns VMware, reportedly does not mind the change.
Broadcom has largely stopped selling the vSphere and vCenter products that many customers relied on, instead offering them only as part of VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF), a private cloud bundle. While Broadcom says VCF costs less than pre-acquisition VMware pricing, the bundle is often more expensive than a customer's last bill, prompting many to reduce their VMware footprint.
Three key dates are highlighted: November 22, 2026, when many multi-year subscriptions expire; March 31, 2027, when contracts with many cloud service providers end; and October 11, 2027, the last day of support for VCF 8. These dates will force customers to decide whether to upgrade or switch platforms.
Rivals admit they cannot fully match VMware's technology, but they are winning customers. Nutanix is gaining hundreds of former VMware customers each quarter, and Red Hat has secured over $680 million in virtualization orders. Cisco has created its own hypervisor, and other vendors like SUSE and Proxmox are also courting VMware refugees.