The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) has collaborated with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) on exploratory work to understand how uncertainty in vaccine development might influence the economic consequences of pandemic response decisions. This included considering uncertainties in development timescales and the number of vaccine candidates.
The project, described as a proof of concept, combined scientific input, economic evidence, and actuarial techniques. It aimed to show how a range of possible outcomes could be explored, moving beyond reliance on a single estimate, and how actuarial modelling can assist decision-makers in understanding uncertainty and quantifying risk.
GAD and UKHSA developed a simplified, hypothetical model to investigate how uncertain vaccine-development timescales could interact with the economic effects of pandemic response choices. The analysis produced a distribution of outcomes rather than a single forecast, allowing for examination of central estimates and less likely, more severe outcomes.
The work also illustrated the importance of diversification, suggesting that relying on fewer vaccine candidates could increase expected development times. Such delays could potentially lead to higher economic costs.
Michael West, Deputy Chief Economist at UKHSA, commented that GAD delivered a useful analysis within a challenging timescale, and that the team's technical expertise was impressive.
This analysis was a hypothetical, non-advisory proof of concept. Further research, validation, and assurance would be required before adapting the model to support live decisions.