Developing the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields, currently under consideration by the UK government, could result in climate damage that far exceeds their economic benefits, according to a new analysis. The assessment estimates that carbon pollution from these fields could cause economic damage ranging from £119bn to £336bn in the coming decades.
This figure is compared to the £28.7bn in value to the UK estimated by Adura, the fossil fuel company promoting the new fields. The analysis, which has been submitted to the Rosebank consultation and an academic journal, uses peer-reviewed research on how increasing temperatures affect economies, applied to the fields' production estimates.
Luke Hatton of Imperial College London, who conducted the analysis, stated that the numbers indicate a "very strong destruction of [economic] value above and beyond what Rosebank and Jackdaw could generate for the UK." He suggested that the alternative is to "really double down on clean energy technologies."
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero stated that the North Sea remains a "vital national asset, supporting jobs, growth and the UK’s energy security." A spokesperson added that oil and gas will continue to play an important role in the energy system for decades, alongside the transition to clean power.