A wave of instability has swept through government bond markets in major economies over the past fortnight, with significant knock-on effects for borrowers. The interest rate, or yield, on 10-year US government borrowing hit 4.8% on Friday, increasing from 4.64% ten days earlier. The 30-year yield also briefly touched its highest level since 2008 midweek.
Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, suggests that a re-evaluation of US public finances is a key factor in this market wobble. US government debt has surpassed $40tn, with annual deficits forecast at 6% of GDP for the foreseeable future. Russell Jones, a veteran bond market analyst, noted that markets can delay judgment but eventually decide "that's enough."
Concerns about renewed inflation, driven by rising oil prices above $90 a barrel due to Middle East hostilities, are also contributing to the pressure. This has increased expectations that central banks will need to raise interest rates, further pushing up yields. The European Central Bank is expected to lead with a rate rise next week, and markets are signalling higher borrowing costs across major economies, including the UK.
In the UK, investors are now anticipating three quarter-point rate rises over the next year. This will lead to predictions of higher interest rate costs for the Treasury ahead of new Chancellor John Healey's autumn budget. David Aikman, director of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, has urged the new government to consider spending cuts or tax increases to mitigate the impact of higher borrowing costs.