A strong El Niño event is likely to increase the chances of wetter, stormier conditions for the UK between October and December, according to the latest Met Office forecast. The North West is expected to be worse affected than the South East, according to Dr Amulya Chevuturi, a senior hydroclimate scientist at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH).
Given the current intense drought in the UK, rainfall impacts are of immediate concern. The amount and location of rain this autumn and winter will be critical for the recovery of the UK's exceptionally low river flows.
However, some uncertainty remains regarding the full impacts of this El Niño on the UK climate. This is due to its unprecedented strength and the unusually warm Atlantic, which adds further complexity to the ocean-atmosphere links between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.
Dr Akshay Deoras, a Senior Research Scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science & Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, noted that El Niño has no robust link to the UK’s annual mean temperature or rainfall, but can influence seasonal variability. A cooler, drier winter could increase heating demand and pressure on energy systems.