More than 450,000 people are projected to die from the additional heat brought by the current super El Niño in the next six months, according to estimates by climate scientists. This toll is in addition to early deaths already linked to rising temperatures from the climate crisis.
The impact is expected globally, affecting regions from Indonesia to India, and Nigeria to the US. Further deaths are also anticipated from droughts, wildfires, and flooding associated with El Niños.
The El Niño phenomenon, which is currently heating the planet, recorded its highest temperature ever on Monday, several months before its anticipated peak. Scientists have described the heat as “mind-blowing” and “Godzilla-level.”
The estimate of deaths covers the period from September to February 2027, which is when current temperature forecasts conclude. However, elevated levels of heat deaths are expected to persist until June or July 2027.
The most affected tropical nations in the coming six months are projected to be Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil. The US is among the top 20 most affected countries, with an estimated 3,500 additional heat deaths. The Sahel region in Africa and south-east Asia are also expected to be heavily impacted.
Researchers suggest that measures such as improved heat forecasts, cooling centres, increased medical staffing during peak heat, and protections for outdoor workers could help save lives.