Widespread tactical voting at the next general election could see Reform UK pushed into fourth place, potentially bringing Labour within touching distance of a majority, according to a major poll. The research, conducted by Survation and the progressive activist site 38 Degrees, involved over 8,000 voters and was shared with the Guardian.
The poll suggests that Andy Burnham is attracting a significant number of left-leaning voters back to Labour, driven by a desire to prevent Nigel Farage from gaining ground. This shift is noted on the eve of Labour's annual conference in Liverpool.
If an election were held today, the poll projects Labour as the largest party with 272 seats, holding a four-point lead. Reform UK would become the official opposition with 153 seats, while the Conservatives would fall to third place with 85 seats. However, if voters in tight marginals are prepared to switch their vote to one of the two frontrunners, Reform UK's seat count could fall significantly, benefiting both Labour and the Conservatives.
Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation's chief executive, stated that around 18% of the national electorate are open to tactical voting but are not yet doing so. He added that if these voters were to act on this willingness, Reform could lose approximately 90 seats, despite a potential increase in its own vote share.