The UK housing market has taken another hit, with residential property transactions falling for the second consecutive month in May, down 2% to 98,450 from April's revised figure of 100,440. According to HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), this decline is being attributed to a combination of rising mortgage rates and pre-election uncertainty.
While seasonally adjusted transactions may be 17% higher than May last year, industry experts point out that the comparison is skewed by the recent Stamp Duty threshold changes in April 2023. Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, notes an unusual absence of a typical seasonal uplift in activity, suggesting underlying weakness in buyer sentiment.
Anthony Codling, Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets, contextualised May's figures by pointing out they sit around the five-year average. However, he also drew attention to a 15% month-on-month and 11% year-on-year drop in May mortgage approvals, which could signal further challenges for the market in the coming months.
Richard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla, has revised his forecast for completed transactions to be 6-8% lower than last year, a significant adjustment from an earlier prediction of a 2% drop. He explained that housing transactions typically reflect sales agreed five to six months prior and pointed out that higher mortgage rates in April have already led to a 7% year-on-year decrease in new sales agreed for June.
Despite the national downturn, there are some glimmers of improving conditions for borrowers. Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, noted the stability offered by inflation holding at 2.8% and the Bank of England maintaining the base rate at 3.75%. He pointed to Nationwide cutting rates three times in June, suggesting competitive lender activity could translate into improved affordability.
The picture on the ground also shows regional variations. Amy Reynolds, Head of Sales at Antony Roberts, observed that a significant proportion of buyers are either equity-rich or cash buyers, with well-priced family homes in desirable locations still attracting competitive interest. She anticipates a quieter, price-sensitive summer, with activity potentially firming up in the autumn once there is greater clarity on interest rates and broader geopolitical developments.