The stage is set for a titanic clash on Sunday, as Lionel Messi and his Argentine army take on the reigning champions from Spain. The beautiful game's biggest prize is up for grabs, and this mouth-watering match-up promises to deliver an unmissable spectacle that will have football fans around the globe on the edge of their seats.
Opta's clever algorithms may be predicting a Spanish victory, but delve deeper into the tournament statistics and it's clear that this is going to be no easy ride for either team. Spain's incredible 37-match unbeaten streak, minus penalty shootouts, is an impressive achievement, while Argentina's own winning run of 14 matches shows they're not ones to be underestimated.
Spain's defence has been a rock-solid fortress throughout the competition, shipping a mere 2.15 expected goals across seven matches - that's just 0.31 per game! To put that into perspective, five teams allowed more than this mark in their opening match alone. Argentina may not have matched these mind-boggling figures, but they've been hot on Spain's heels, surpassing the 2.15 xG mark only once - when Egypt scored against them in the last-16.
But while Spain's defensive solidity is a major concern for Lionel Messi and his team, Argentina's attacking firepower presents a significant threat to the Spanish backline. The reigning champions have consistently outperformed their non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, and they'll need to continue this trend if they're to retain their title. Messi leads the charge with an impressive 34 shots, including two penalties, while Lamine Yamal (23) and Mikel Oyarzabal (22, one penalty) are hot on his heels.
One of the key factors that could swing the outcome is the impact of substitutes. Players like Mikel Merino (0.35 xG per shot) and Lautaro Martínez (0.22 xG per shot), who boast higher figures for expected goals per shot among those with at least 10 attempts, could be the difference-makers from off the bench. While Opta gives Spain a 45% chance of winning in regular time compared to Argentina's 26%, the underlying tournament data suggests this might not be as one-sided as predicted.